Numbers and Targeted Voters
AARP Iowa commissioned a poll which was not given much attention by media outlets. Some may say it’s because it showed Republicans in the lead in Iowa; I say it was because the news release about it came out one day but it was not clear if it was to be kept on background until the news conference a few days later or not. Regardless, it did not get the attention it deserves.
The survey was of likely voters in Iowa, and it showed Joni Ernst leading Theresa Greenfield in the U.S. Senate race, 50-45 percent…that’s outside the margin of error of the poll. And President Trump leads Vice President Biden 47-45 percent, within the 3.5 percent margin of error. Those numbers are strikingly similar to a Monmouth University poll we’ve discussed from earlier in the summer.
AARP is interested not only in those numbers, but how things look for voters above age 50…in Iowa, turnout among that cohort is pretty good. 55 percent of the total Iowa vote four years ago was from those aged 50-plus, and 60 percent of the vote in this state two years ago was from that age group. The polling showed similar results for just that age group, with Trump ahead by 2 percentage points, and Ernst up by 4 points.
A few other numbers of interest…Trump leads Biden among male voters 56-37, but Biden leads among women by 52-39.
And perhaps not surprisingly, of issues ranked extremely or very important to the older demographic, 84 percent said jobs and the economy was important…82 percent noted Social Security, and 80 identified health care.
A clear majority, 57 percent, of those above age 50 say they plan to vote early…either in person at the courthouse, or by absentee ballot. Only 39 percent will be voting on election day.
The poll is of interest not only because of sample size and because it is of likely voters, but because it is of the most reliable voters in Iowa.
